MANILA – The highly influential Catholic Bishops Conference of the Phils., which had been widely expected to join the growing calls for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to resign, unexpectedly issued a statement yesterday (July 10) saying they were not joining the clamor.

Analysts had predicted that had the CBCP demanded the President’s resignation, the Arroyo administration would have been done for.

The bishops’ statement instead said there were many options that Mrs. Arroyo could take.

The President apparently knew the unexpected direction the CBCP would take. She took a stroll with her youngest son and his family at the Roxas Boulevard Boardwalk, her first public appearance of note since Friday when the political crisis reached its peak and she was abandoned by ally after ally.

President Arroyo has been receiving support from a greater number of supporters, negating the exit of such allies as former President Corazon Aquino, Senate President Franklin Drilon of the Liberal Party, and the Makati Business Club.

Former President Fidel Ramos, Manila Mayor Lito Atienza also of the Liberal Party, and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry issued statements in support of Mrs. Arroyo.

Yesterday, more supporters publicly declared that they would back the President, with an added threat that they would act if she were removed by force.

Political allies from Cagayan Valley said they were sending “a strong message” to Mrs. Arroyo’s critics that they would stop the delivery of agriculture produce to the National Capital Region if they removed her by force.

Isabel Rep. Edwin Uy said, “We can do it. People in Metro Manila will suffer.”

The region, he said, “can survive without imperial Manila.”

The phrase “imperial Manila” has been used by other leaders of other regions as a means of telling the anti-Arroyo leaders that they meant business. It was first used by Cebuano leaders in the past, and Cebu remains solidly behind the President.

Meanwhile, Mindanao leaders moved another step closer to setting up a Mindanao Republic by setting a meeting this week that would iron out the mechanisms of the proposed republic which would also be set up as soon as Mrs. Arroyo is forced out.

But the opposition remained adamant in demanding that the President step down. After last Friday’s rally by the United Opposition led by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, the left-leaning Bagong Alyansang Makabayan announced that they would organize a rally on Wednesday, July 13, at the same site – the corner of Ayala Avenue and Paseo de Roxas in the middle of the Makati Central Business District, where a statue of Benigno ‘Ninoy’ Aquino stands.

“Hopefully, we can organize at least 50,000 people,” according to Bayan secretary general Renato Reyes.

COMMENT: President Arroyo may be stronger than she is aware of. The massive show of support she has been receiving outside Metro Manila should be enough to convince her of her position. She is not popular in the metropolis, but the clamor for her to quit is not that great either.

This means that the silent majority are not totally convinced that she is guilty of any crime or wrongdoing, as the opposition has been insisting.

The opposition, on the other hand, has failed to bring in the numbers. The 50,000 that Bayan seeks is a mere one-tenth of the rallyists who took part in Edsa II, which installed Mrs. Arroyo vice Joseph Estrada. In fact, 5,000 has been the largest crowd they have gathered, with an unknown number paid to attend. That’s one percent of the Edsa II crowd.

Conventional wisdom says President Arroyo needs the backing of the Church and the military to stay in power. The CBCP’s unexpected stand can be interpreted as weak support from the Catholic Church, but support just the same. And with Mr. Ramos behind her, the majority of the military could also be deemed as being supportive of Mrs. Arroyo.

Getting rid of Mrs. Arroyo will not be easy. She survived the worst day of her crisis, which happened last Friday.

MANILA –Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s presidency, which received a series of crippling blows from former close allies the other day, did not get the expected coup de grace from the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines yesterday (July 9).

That final blow, reportedly also a call for President Arroyo to resign, did not come as the powerful assembly of the country’s bishops could not agree on the wordings of the statement.

And while no statement came from Mrs. Arroyo, she did receive support from various quarters that indicated that her forced removal from office would be met with political maneuvers that would threaten the very existence of the Republic of the Philippines.

Meanwhile, Vice President Noli de Castro has reportedly been meeting with leaders from the administration and the opposition in preparation for his expected assumption of the presidency.

While not withdrawing his support for the President, de Castro’s latest statement for Mrs. Arroyo to “do what is good for the country” has been interpreted as his way of asking her to sacrifice her position to end the crisis.

The Arroyo administration’s expected demise was brought about by the resignation of six Cabinet secretaries and three other Cabinet-level officials without portfolio; the call of the Liberal Party as well as former President Corazon Aquino for her to resign; and a similar call from the Makati Business Club for the President to quit in favor of de Castro.

The exodus of her supporters was widely believed to be the beginning of the end, but  Mrs. Arroyo also received backing from equally powerful allies.

The overwhelming majority of the House of Representatives reiterated their backing of her regime; Liberal Party members and officials disowned the statement of party leaders; former President Fidel Ramos offered a solution whereby a change to parliamentary form of government would allow her a graceful exit; and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry said Mrs. Arroyo should ignore calls for her to resign.

More importantly, the majority of governors from the Visayas solidified their plan to form an independent republic if Mrs. Arroyo is forced to resign. Ditto with the majority of governors of the Bicol region. Governors for both regions issued statements saying they were dead serious in their plan.

This comes as the proponents of a Mindanao Republic likewise refused to recognize a non-Constitutionally mandated post-Arroyo government.

The Ilocos region aired a similar threat weeks ago, and the President’s support in her bailiwick of Central Luzon cannot be underestimated.

Finally, in a nationwide radio address, Armed Forces chief Gen. Efren Abu said the military would have no part of a government that was installed in defiance of the Constitution.

COMMENT: The Philippines is in such a tenuous and fragile situation that the political leaders based in Metro Manila may not be taking seriously enough. The calls to form independent republics in four regions, with the possibility of a fifth, could mean a pyrrhic victory for the anti-Arroyo forces. Metro Manila could be isolated, and even the majority of its mayors could refuse to recognize whatever new government proclaims itself as replacing President Arroyo.

The opposition is treading on very dangerous ground. An Edsa-style revolt to remove Mrs. Arroyo can only be interpreted by the world community that the Philippines has ceased to be a viable democracy, and is heading towards mob rule. This next one is one Edsa too many, even if they are trying to use Ayala Avenue as a substitute.

The only way to remove her is by impeachment. While this may be a long process, it is the only one that is clearly defined in the Constitution as the means of removing an incumbent president.

In a statement, the mayors said: “We as mayors oppose any move to unseat the President by any means violative of the Constitution.”

The group included Lito Atienza of Manila, Feliciano Belmonte Jr. of Quezon City, Rodrigo Duterte of Davao and Edward Hagedorn of Puerto Princesa.

Hagedorn was the surprise backer of the President, as he is known to be a close friend of deposed President Joseph Estrada, as well as the late Fernando Poe Jr., who once depicted Hagedorn in a movie.

Addressing the issue of the Gloriagate tape which sparked calls for Mrs. Arroyp to resign, Hagedorn said, “What irks me about these audio tapes is, if they were really authentic, why did they surface only now that FPJ is dead?”

Atienza was more blunt, referring to the tapes as “garbage.”

COMMENT: This unexpected show of support put a damper on the anti-Arroyo forces, which had been counting on a bandwagon effect to force Mrs. Arroyo to resign. The President is clearly not thinking of quitting as she has received a substantial show of support from the provinces, but now her hand has been strengthened by this act of key mayors from Metro Manila and outside. Although not included in this group, yet another mayor who is solidly behind her is Cebu City’s Tommy Osmena.

MANILA – He is muddling the issue. This was the opposition’s stand on the statements of former Commission on Elections commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, who claimed that the conversation he had with President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo were not unique or unusual. Garcillano said he had similar conversations with many oppositionists, including senators Juan Ponce Enrile and Jamby Madrigal, and even House Minority Leader Francis Escudero, who denied the claim.

Escudero accused the Arroyo administration of deflecting public attention from the President’s alleged cheating by aiming its guns at the opposition.

While still in hiding, Garcillano told the Philippine Daily Inquirer the other day that he had talked to a number of politicians during last year’s election period, including Fernando Poe Jr’s running mate Loren Legarda.

COMMENT: Despite Escudero’s denial, the admission of other oppositionists that they had had conversations with Garcillano similar to the one the Comelec commissioner had with the President has dealt a telling blow to the anti-Arroyo forces. Their bid to oust Mrs. Arroyo via forced resignation has been weakened and their hopes of impeaching her have all but disappeared. Despite so many calls for her to resign, President Arroyo is showing enough political strength to ride out this storm.

She is not as unpopular as her enemies believe.

Supporters of jailed Moro leader Nur Misuari are openly supporting Zaldy Ampatuan, mayor of Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao, who is running in the Aug. 8 gubernatorial elections in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Ampatuan is the official candidate of the Lakas Christian Muslim Democrats, the umbrella party of which the president is a leader.

The Misuari faction of the Moro National Liberation Front decided to back a candidate even after the MNLF had called for a boycott of the elections in protest over President Arroyo’s declaration of a free zone in the ARMM.

Misuari was the founder of the MNLF, but the organization ousted him, and installed Parouk Hussin in his place. The mainstream MNLF is boycotting the elections because Ampatuan not a member of the Front, but is considered Malacanang’s favored candidate.

COMMENT: The ARMM is one of the most underdeveloped areas in the country, full of promise and little else. Misuari was the first governor of this region and he proved himself a better warrior than administrator. He was a divisive governor, even among Moros. But he still wields tremendous influence and his supporters’ backing of Ampatuan could not have happened without his approval.

MANILA – The government’s bid to lift the temporary restraining order issued by the Supreme Court against the expanded value added tax law was denied yesterday (July 5), but the high tribunal moved to expedite the resolution of the case.

In view of revenue loses estimated at P130 million a day, the SC reset the oral arguments on the case from July 26 to July 14.

The SC did not comment on the motion for reconsideration filed by the finance department the other day. The EVAT law was supposed to take effect July 1 but the minority lawmakers from the Senate and the House of Representatives in partnership with the party list group Abakada along with various associations of petroleum  dealers petitioned the SC last Friday to hold the implementation of the law due to technical shortcomings.

The SC’s issuing of the TRO was not welcomed by investors resulting in a depreciation of the peso and a slide in the stock market. The government had been counting on the proceeds from the EVAT law to partially solve the budget deficit, estimated at P160 billion this year.

COMMENT: The stock market and the rest of the business community will be in limbo between now and July 14. Opposition senator Juan Ponce Enrile said the Arroyo administration must prepare for the worst case, which is the SC declaring with finality that the EVAT law is null and void. Despite President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s serious political problems, she still has to preside over the executive branch, keeping the government bureaucracy rolling.

MANILA – Former Armed Forces chief of staff and now Senator Rodolfo Biazon said military officers and servicemen were ready to resign en masse over reports that some generals had been involved in rigging the presidential elections last year.

Worst of all, the generals whose names were mentioned in the “Gloriagate tapes” were promoted instead of punished for their involvement, Biazon said yesterday (July 5).

“When they hear that some senior officers had been used as political tools…they are mad,” Biazon said.

Unlike in the past when the military became restive and resorted to coups, the feeling now is one of defeat, according to Biazon. This is because “the prostitution of the military” had become so ingrained that reform had become all but impossible.

Most of the military, he said, wanted to preserve their constitutional role of defending the country against external threats, free from political interference.

COMMENT: The military has every right to be restive. The AFP had been turned into the private army of Ferdinand Marcos during the martial law years, and corruption was institutionalized. The Edsa Revolt of 1986 was spurred by the demand of a young core of officers who called themselves the Reform the Armed Forces Movement. Later, the Young Officers Union issued a similar demand to reform the AFP. After so many years, those reforms have not taken root, apparently.

MANILA – Former president Joseph Estrada, allowed to leave his detention facility for a medical check up, the other day said he would support whoever replaced President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

He called actress Susan Roces “the new symbol and inspiration of the Filipino masses.” Roces is the widow of Estrada’s best friend, the late Fernando Poe, Jr, the King of Philippine Movies, who ran but lost to President Arroyo in last year’s elections. Poe never conceded defeat and his widow is demanding that Mrs. Arroyo resign because she rigged the elections with the help of a Commission on Elections official.

In a statement issued yesterday (July 5), Estrada said: “I will unequivocally support whoever is destined to be the new and popular leader of our people.”

He also said he was no longer interested in regaining his post and “the stolen years of my legitimate presidency.”

COMMENT: Estrada sees hope that he may yet be set free and the plunder case against him dropped. Those hopes were dashed when Poe lost last year, and the possibility grew that he would spend the rest of his life behind bars. Now, with Roces expected to assume the leader’s role of the opposition and President Arroyo embattled, Estrada’s hopes are up again. One hitch: Roces cannot become president under any legal circumstances.

At best, he is praying that whoever replaces Mrs. Arroyo be friendly to his cause.

MANILA – Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Efren Abu has ordered the monitoring of the officers and men of the AFP in case any of them are enticed to join the mounting calls for  President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to resign.

A military spokesman yesterday (July 4) said the Intelligence Service of the AFP was monitoring the troops to prevent them from “going astray.”

Lt. Col. Buenaventura Pascual, AFP public information chief, added that Army Col. Gregorio Catapang who had been linked to a reported plot to oust the president, had reported to Abu to clear his name. Catapang was supposedly recruiting his peers and subordinates to switch their allegiance to Vice President Noli de Castro, a report that he denied.

Catapang, along with Maj. Jason Aquino, were tagged as the recruiters of possible supporters of a De Castro presidency.

Pascual admitted that there are ongoing efforts to recruit officers and soldiers to join efforts to bring down the Arroyo administration. He added that the AFP was solidly behind their commander-in-chief, President Arroyo.

COMMENT: The Constitution says the military and the police must be shielded from politics. This seems ideal, but not practical. Since Edsa in ’86, officers of the AFP have considered it their role to come to the aid of the country even if it meant getting involved in politics. Such a belief can no longer be removed from their mindset. And everyone agrees that whoever would be president has to have the support of the majority of the AFP, as well as the Philippine National Police.

MANILA – The government rejected all bids for treasury bills yesterday (July 4) because the Supreme Court’s suspension of the expanded value added tax law coupled with the troubled political situation prevailing in the country had pushed banks to seek high risk premiums.

“The market is trying to digest all of these developments,” said National Treasurer Omar Cruz. The rate for the 91-day T-bills issued by the government had gone beyond acceptable limits and accepting the bids would have had a serious effect on the government’s ability to honor the bills.

Last Friday, the SC issued a temporary restraining order on the eVAT, which the finance department contested yesterday via a motion for reconsideration.

The Arroyo administration had been banking on the eVAT law to produce the revenues needed to address the budget deficit, estimated to hit P160 billion this year.

COMMENT: There are many instances when economics and law do not meet, and this is one of those times. Although the SC issued the TRO based on technicalities of the law, it still interfered in a matter best settled by economists. The best legal minds may not necessarily understand the laws that govern economics. In this case, the SC looked at the legal wordings of a taxation law passed by Congress, rather than understand the spirit in which that law was passed.

If the TRO is not lifted soon, the market would have a hard time believing the government can still push through with its fiscal reform agenda. This will cause investors to pull back. The entire economy could collapse. While this could not possibly be the intention of the SC, it could still happen and there would be no one to blame but the country’s highest tribunal.